Crypto Bull Market Over?! Here’s The Truth…

Is this time different? Or, have we forgotten the lessons of previous crypto cycles and lost sight of the long-term outlook amidst all the short-term chaos? Are we so over, or is the best yet to come?

This debate is raging throughout the crypto community and it’s not hard to see why. The last year or so has thrown one curveball after another at us, while making previous cycles look serene by comparison. From spot ETFs to presidential memecoins and everything in between, this has been a cycle to test even the most patient. Just what in Satoshi’s name is going on?

In today’s video, we analyse the current cycle and where we are in it. We look at how crypto has fundamentally changed in the last 18 months, but how this could be opening up new reasons to be bullish. We also examine how there are still changes yet to be implemented that could supercharge the market still further. This cycle may be stressful, but damn it’s fascinating too.

You can watch that video here.

📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈

Looks like macro is back on the menu folks. This week’s focus will be the CPI print for February, which comes out Wednesday. Although the CPI has been steadily rising since late last year, real-time data from Truflation suggests that inflation is starting to come down. While many believe Trump’s tariffs could lead to higher inflation, it seems most of these tariffs came into force this month.

Not only that, but oil prices also fell a lot in February, and continue to fall. In addition to the fact that this increases the possibility that February’s CPI print will come in lower than expected, many believe that falling oil prices are a sign that tariffs could weaken the economy rather than stoke inflation. As with lower inflation, a weaker economy increases the chances of rate cuts.

The fall in oil prices could have geopolitical effects as well. Russia earns most of its revenue from oil. Its break-even costs are estimated to be around 40-42$USD per barrel. It’s possible that Trump’s recent move to reportedly pressure OPEC to increase oil supply to lower oil prices could have the dual effect of forcing Russia to agree to a peace deal in Ukraine.

Meanwhile in Western Europe, Germany is reportedly on the brink of raising its so-called ‘debt brake’ that would allow it to spend as much as one trillion euros. Even though most of this will likely be geared towards defence spending, a good chunk of this money will eventually find its way into assets. Executives at defence companies investing more in stocks, for instance.

At the same time, bond yields in Europe and elsewhere are rising to levels not seen in years. The practical effect of this is that it’s causing interest rates in these countries to rise at a time when their economies are still very weak. In turn, this puts pressure on central banks to respond with more stimulus, which would likewise increase overall liquidity and be supportive of assets.

These macro conditions are also creating lots of volatility in currencies, with the DXY practically in free fall. For those unfamiliar, the DXY measures the strength of the US dollar. When the DXY rises, it's usually bearish for the markets, and when it falls, it's usually bullish for the markets. For crypto, it’s yet another bullish tailwind on the macro side that supports prices.

If this story sounds familiar, that’s because it’s happened before. During Trump’s first term in 2017, the US dollar fell like a stone, and risk assets like crypto rallied. Many crypto and macro analysts have pointed out the parallels between the DXY in 2017 and the DXY in 2025. The crazy thing is that the Fed was raising rates and doing QT during the 2017 bull market too!

The difference this time is that we have an explicitly pro-crypto administration with pro-crypto regulatory agencies and an overwhelmingly pro-crypto Congress. A relevant example here is the Senate’s recent repeal of the IRS’s broker definition, which basically banned DeFi in the US. Chances are the House will vote to repeal too, and there’s no question Trump will sign off on it.  

In other words, the macro appears to be slowly but surely improving, all while the structure of the crypto industry is being slowly but surely changed to make it easier for macro liquidity to flow into cryptos of all kinds. Make no mistake, this will take time. Research by Bitwise suggests it takes as long as three months for liquidity to flow into Bitcoin, and forecasts an April recovery.

It’s not clear though how long it will take for this liquidity to flow into altcoins, if ever. What is clear is that altcoins seem to be much more influenced by long-term interest rates than raw liquidity flows. Back in 2017, altcoins rallied even though short-term interest rates were rising, but they started crashing when long-term interest rates started rising at the end of 2017. These are determined by long-term US bond yields. Say, did you know Trump wants to lower long-term yields?

You can learn more about that here.  

💰 Bitcoin Reserve 💰

In the early hours of Friday (Dubai time), White House crypto czar David Sacks announced that US president Donald Trump had formally signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR) and a US digital asset stockpile.

For context, this has been the most anticipated announcement from the Trump administration since he took office a couple months ago (in crypto circles, at any rate). However, instead of printing a massive green god candle as expected, the announcement instead saw markets immediately nuke in response. The price of BTC fell by 6%, with the broader market following in its footsteps.

Was this selloff the result of a simple ‘sell-the-news’ event, or was something bigger at play here? Well, the culprit reveals itself in the rest of Sack’s announcement.

Notably, while the SBR is now confirmed, the announcement clarified that the establishment of the SBR would come at no cost to taxpayers. Specifically, Sacks revealed the SBR would be funded with BTC already forfeited to the federal government as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings.

In other words, the US government would not use its treasury to buy BTC for the SBR. While some see this as the removal of $18 billion worth of sell pressure, it’s also true that it results in no buy pressure either - a detail which understandably caused some disappointment among many investors.

Furthermore, the announcement also confirmed that digital assets other than BTC, including XRP, ADA and SOL, would be part of the US’s digital asset stockpile instead of being part of the strategic ‘crypto’ reserve, as previously hinted at by Trump in his Truth Social post from March 2nd.

Like the SBR, the stockpile would also comprise assets that the federal government has seized as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. However, the primary difference between the SBR and the digital asset stockpile is that the government will not actively look for ways to acquire more of the assets contained in the stockpile. Altcoiners – especially XRP, ADA and SOL holders – were significantly disappointed, since this means their favourite altcoin bags will not see federal endorsement, as many had hoped.

Another point of concern raised within certain crypto circles is the government’s use of assets seized in civil asset forfeiture proceedings to fund the SBR. Notably, as independent journalist L0La L33Tz points out in her recent opinion piece published by Bitcoin Magazine, this legal process allows the government to seize assets it deems to have been involved in a crime, even if the owner of the asset has not been charged with any crimes.

She points out that the law places the burden of proof on the asset's owner to demonstrate that the property wasn't involved in criminal activity. Given that most BTC can be traced back to having touched a sanctions evasion, a darknet marketplace, or some other alleged illicit activity at some point down the line, L33Tz claims the lack of clarity surrounding the exact use of future civil asset forfeiture proceedings to fund the SBR presents a significant attack vector for legitimate holders of BTC.

All things considered, the market’s immediate reaction is likely temporary, given that the SBR ultimately bestows legitimacy upon BTC’s status as a reliable store of value. For instance, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan notes that the establishment of the SBR by the US dramatically increases the likelihood and speed at which other nations will consider establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves of their own.

To continue looking at the bright side, consider that the announcement also revealed that the president had authorised the secretaries of Treasury and Commerce to develop “budget-neutral” strategies to acquire additional BTC without cost to the taxpayer. While the creation of these strategies will take some time, it’s possible to speculate what they could entail.

For example, one possible budget-neutral strategy could entail the creation of an “orange card” as part or instead of the existing EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program framework in the US. Essentially, wealthy Bitcoin holders could gain US residency in exchange for "donating" a fixed sum of BTC directly to the SBR. This policy already exists in certain other countries (El Salvador) and also mirrors the ‘gold card’ program recently proposed by Trump.

Another possible strategy would be to create a ‘crypto declaration scheme’ that offers a short-term opportunity for undetected crypto tax evaders/defaulters to legally come clean and settle their dues by donating a percentage of their newly declared Bitcoin/crypto holdings to the SBR. This would boost the country’s revenue upfront while increasing its vigilance of gains made by crypto holders within the country.

Other potential strategies may also include using excess energy to mine BTC and establishing partnerships with institutional investors or companies willing to donate BTC to the SBR in exchange for tax credits or policy incentives. The possibilities are numerous. It’s certainly not the end of the road for the government’s accumulation of BTC and we suspect more details will emerge in the weeks ahead. Stay tuned.

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🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮

* Trump Tariffs: The economic and geopolitical implications…
* Retail Returning? Will they ever come back to crypto?
* Altcoin ETF Update: What’s happening?
* Crypto Market Suppression: Market manipulation in crypto revealed…
* Top Staking Cryptos: Our top 5 picks!
* Trump & Canada & Greenland: What is going on and why now?

🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆

* Ledger's Clear Signing Initiative: Eliminating Blind Signing Risks
* Arkham Exchange Review: Next-Gen Trading with On-Chain Intelligence
* Discover the Top Altcoin Exchanges for Seamless Trading In 2025
* Crypto Mixers Explained
* Maximize Your Trading Potential with Top Crypto Exchanges For Shorting
* Hyperliquid Review: A Closer Look at Its Tech And Trading Features

📖 Quote of the Week 📖

It’s clear that there has been a lot of disappointment in the air over the past two months. Expectations ran way ahead of what seemed reasonable. But, this still doesn’t change the long-term vision we have for Bitcoin and crypto more broadly.

“We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope.” - Martin Luther King, Jr

Team Coin Bureau

Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.